Teplice 1-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mlada Boleslav are 1.30 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Mlada Boleslav 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Mlada Boleslav 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.42 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.599 / defence 0.755 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.539 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.176. Teplice's attack strength of 0.599 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mlada Boleslav have an above-average attack strength of 1.539 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Teplice's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Teplice games / 42 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Mlada Boleslav 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Teplice 1.42 / Mlada Boleslav 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.599 / def 0.755 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.539 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Teplice 1 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.54x) against Teplice's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.94
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Teplice and 1.37 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 12D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (16W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Teplice against 1.39 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 8W 9D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.57 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.50 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 64% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Teplice's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 64% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Mlada Boleslav 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.42 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.37 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.60 / defence 0.76 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.54 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Mlada Boleslav 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.