Pardubice 0-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Zlin travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 2W 4D 4L at CFIG Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zlin have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Pardubice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 1, Zlin 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Zlin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Zlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.21 xG and Zlin 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.686 / defence 0.926 | Zlin attack 0.681 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.176. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Pardubice games / 43 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 47% | Draw 30% | Zlin 23%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Zlin 4.35. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Zlin lead the H2H ledger, but Pardubice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 47% | Draw 30% | Zlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Pardubice 1.21 / Zlin 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.686 / def 0.926 | Zlin attack 0.681 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Zlin xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 47% chance of winning, Zlin a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Record (5 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 1 | Zlin 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Zlin (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.69x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.32
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.95
0.74
Zlin xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.74 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 9D 26L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.90 PPG from 50 outings (9W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.08 PPG, Zlin on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.56 points per game from 25 outings (1W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.14 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 18D 23L in their last 50 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Zlin away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 44%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 56% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 44% of games; Zlin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pardubice's recent matches and 56% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 56% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Zlin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.21 xG and Zlin 0.74 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Zlin attack 0.68 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 47% | Draw 30% | Zlin 23%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Zlin 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.08 PPG, Zlin 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.