Sparta Praha 2-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
epet ARENA plays host to Sparta Praha versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 0D 1L at epet ARENA — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.20 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Sparta Praha, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Bohemians 1905 — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 58% versus Bohemians 1905 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 58% | Bohemians 1905 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.16 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.542 / defence 0.813 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.837 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.150. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.542 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Sparta Praha games / 43 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 69% | Draw 19% | Bohemians 1905 12%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Bohemians 1905 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 60% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 69% | Draw 19% | Bohemians 1905 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Sparta Praha 2.16 / Bohemians 1905 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.542 / def 0.813 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.837 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bohemians 1905 xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha 2 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 69% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Sparta Praha 3W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.54x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.84x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.34
12%
8.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.94
0.78
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
8.17
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
12%
8.67
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
1%
70.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.78 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 48 games, going 33W 11D 4L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.44 PPG from 48 outings (20W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 18W 4D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (12W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.40 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 33W 11D 4L in their last 48 games (2.29 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.42 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 62%, Bohemians 1905 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sparta Praha and 58% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 46% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sparta Praha's matches and 58% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.16 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.78 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.54 / defence 0.81 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 69% | Draw 19% | Bohemians 1905 12%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 58%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.