České Budějovice 0-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 0.90 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for České Budějovice, 2 for Teplice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 52% versus Teplice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.42 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.872 / defence 1.103 | Teplice attack 0.901 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.162. Data: 44 České Budějovice games / 44 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 26% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 26% | Teplice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG České Budějovice 1.42 / Teplice 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.872 / def 1.103 | Teplice attack 0.901 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Teplice xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Teplice kick off?
České Budějovice vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Teplice?
České Budějovice 0 - 1 Teplice.
Where is České Budějovice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Teplice part of?
České Budějovice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 43% chance of winning, Teplice a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both České Budějovice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Teplice?
Record (4 meetings): České Budějovice 2W | Draws 0 | Teplice 2W.
What form are České Budějovice and Teplice in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.87) and Teplice's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.90x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.80
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.57
1.15
Teplice xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.15 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 6D 26L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.24 PPG from 46 outings (15W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.24 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
České Budějovice's home form reads 10W 2D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (6W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.15 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Teplice in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 14W 6D 26L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Teplice have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Teplice away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.39 PPG; Teplice away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
2
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 48%, Teplice 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for České Budějovice and 74% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of České Budějovice's games and 65% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of České Budějovice's matches and 74% of Teplice's.
Do České Budějovice and Teplice tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Teplice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat České Budějovice 0-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.42 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 43% | Draw 26% | Teplice 31%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 63%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.04 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.