České Budějovice 3-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as České Budějovice face Bohemians 1905.

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Pre-Match Analysis

České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

České Budějovice at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Bohemians 1905 away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 1.30 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, České Budějovice edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2023, ended České Budějovice 1–0 Bohemians 1905 — a České Budějovice win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 56% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 67% | Bohemians 1905 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.056 / defence 1.518 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.007 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.260. Bohemians 1905 bring a tight defence (rating 0.794, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling České Budějovice's projected output down. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.518 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 34 games and Bohemians 1905's last 34.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 27% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 50%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.68 | Draw 4.43 | Bohemians 1905 1.99. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 60% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 50% (last 10 away games).

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