Bohemians 1905 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 46%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Bohemians 1905 — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Bohemians 1905, 0 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 2–0 Hradec Králové — a Bohemians 1905 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Hradec Králové trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 54% versus Hradec Králové 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 54% | Hradec Králové 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / defence 1.067 | Hradec Králové attack 0.845 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.165. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 35 games and Hradec Králové's last 35.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.18 | Draw 3.78 | Hradec Králové 3.62. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 away games).

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