Slavia Praha 1-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Baník Ostrava travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slavia Praha stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Slavia Praha have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Slavia Praha, 0 for Baník Ostrava and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2023, ended Slavia Praha 2–0 Baník Ostrava — a Slavia Praha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 49% versus Baník Ostrava 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slavia Praha 67% | Baník Ostrava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.26 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.169 / defence 0.817 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.026 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.204. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 34 games and Baník Ostrava's last 34.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 65% | Draw 19% | Baník Ostrava 16%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.53 | Draw 5.26 | Baník Ostrava 6.43. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slavia Praha's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 40% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 5 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 65% | Draw 19% | Baník Ostrava 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Slavia Praha 2.26 / Baník Ostrava 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.169 / def 0.817 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.026 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Baník Ostrava xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha 1 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 5) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 65% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slavia Praha's last 34 games and Baník Ostrava's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.26
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.26
1.01
Baník Ostrava xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
61.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.01 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 28W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 12W 10D 17L from 39 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.89 PPG from their last 19 home games (18W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.31 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 8D 8L from their last 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.72 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.46 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 64%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Slavia Praha (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 28W 6D 5L in their last 39 games (2.31 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.89 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won each of the latest 10 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 5-0 Baník Ostrava.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slavia Praha have won 10, Baník Ostrava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 42%, Baník Ostrava 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Slavia Praha and 53% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Slavia Praha's games and 74% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Slavia Praha's matches and 53% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 68% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.26 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.01 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 65% | Draw 19% | Baník Ostrava 16%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 67%, Baník Ostrava 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.