Plzen 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Plzen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Sigma Olomouc at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 3W 4D 3L at Doosan Aréna — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 1.20 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Plzen have won 1, Sigma Olomouc 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 64% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.46 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.098 / defence 0.952 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.949 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.260. Data: 34 Plzen games / 34 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 80% | Sigma Olomouc 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Plzen 1.46 / Sigma Olomouc 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.098 / def 0.952 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.949 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Plzen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 44% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plzen and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in?
Plzen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.10) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.78
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.60
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Plzen and 1.14 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 39 games, going 20W 8D 11L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.46 PPG from 39 outings (15W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.74 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.54 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 games (1.74 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Plzen's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.85 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plzen's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 65%, Sigma Olomouc 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Plzen) and 45% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Plzen's games and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Plzen's matches and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Plzen and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.46 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 44% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 64%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.74 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.