Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Qingdao Huanghai welcome Henan Jianye to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 8 August 2021 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Qingdao Huanghai — last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Qingdao Huanghai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Henan Jianye stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Henan Jianye away from home: 0W 3D 3L from their last 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Henan Jianye 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Jul 2021, ended Qingdao Huanghai 0–2 Henan Jianye — a Henan Jianye win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Huanghai trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Henan Jianye trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Huanghai 25% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Huanghai 42% | Henan Jianye 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 0.74 xG and Henan Jianye 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.660 / defence 1.914 | Henan Jianye attack 0.532 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.276. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Henan Jianye's attack rating of 0.532 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.914 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 12 games and Henan Jianye's last 12.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Draw 36% | Henan Jianye 46%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 5.72 | Draw 2.75 | Henan Jianye 2.17. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Huanghai 33% (last 6 home games) | Henan Jianye 33% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 13 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 August 2021 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Draw 36% | Henan Jianye 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Qingdao Huanghai 0.74 / Henan Jianye 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.660 / def 1.914 | Henan Jianye attack 0.532 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.003 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Henan Jianye xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Huanghai 0 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 13) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 17% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 46% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Huanghai's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 12 games and Henan Jianye's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
17%
5.72
36%
2.75
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.04
1.30
Henan Jianye xG
5.72
17%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
5%
20.98
22%
4.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.9 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.30 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Qingdao Huanghai have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 2W 1D 9L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Henan Jianye's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Huanghai.
Venue Form
On home soil, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 6 home games (2W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.58 PPG overall — Qingdao Huanghai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 0W 3D 3L from their last 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Huanghai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Huanghai are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Huanghai at home or Henan Jianye away?
Qingdao Huanghai's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Huanghai at home: 1.00 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Qingdao Huanghai or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Huanghai have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 8 August 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2021: Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Qingdao Huanghai 33% BTTS, Henan Jianye 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Qingdao Huanghai) and 17% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 33%; Qingdao Huanghai have failed to score in 50% of games; Henan Jianye in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 33% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent games and 17% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Qingdao Huanghai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 0.74 xG and Henan Jianye 1.30 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.66 / defence 1.91 against Henan Jianye attack 0.53 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Draw 36% | Henan Jianye 46%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Huanghai 42%, Henan Jianye 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.