Tianjin Teda 3-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 August 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium: 1W 0D 5L from 6 Super League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Super League this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.17 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Beijing Guoan trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 64% versus Beijing Guoan 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 54% | Beijing Guoan 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.93 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.859 / defence 1.800 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.636 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 1.343. Data: 11 Tianjin Teda games / 11 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 20% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 49%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Beijing Guoan 2.04. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 83% | Beijing Guoan 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 20% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.93 / Beijing Guoan 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.859 / def 1.800 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.636 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.004 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Beijing Guoan xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 20% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.86) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
20%
5.00
31%
3.20
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.47
1.54
Beijing Guoan xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
4%
23.26
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.54 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 3L across 11 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.09 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 0.50 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 83%, Beijing Guoan 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Tianjin Teda) and 33% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 50%; Beijing Guoan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Tianjin Teda's games and 33% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 33% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Beijing Guoan 3-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.93 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.54 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 1.80 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 20% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 49%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Tianjin Teda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 54%, Beijing Guoan 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.