Changchun Yatai 3-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Changchun Yatai welcome Hebei Zhongji to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 3W 2D 0L at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Changchun Yatai) versus 1.80 (Hebei Zhongji). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Changchun Yatai's 20% and Hebei Zhongji's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Hebei Zhongji and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Hebei Zhongji winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Hebei Zhongji 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 54% | Hebei Zhongji 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.03 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.017 / defence 0.805 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.588 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.337. Data: 11 Changchun Yatai games / 11 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 39% | Hebei Zhongji 19%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.38 | Draw 2.56 | Hebei Zhongji 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Hebei Zhongji's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 20% | Hebei Zhongji 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 39% | Hebei Zhongji 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.03 / Hebei Zhongji 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.017 / def 0.805 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.588 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Hebei Zhongji xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 42% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 19% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
42%
2.40
39%
2.58
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.66
0.63
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.63 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 4D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 2.00 PPG, Hebei Zhongji on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.91 scored and 0.64 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Hebei Zhongji in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.20 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Changchun Yatai have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2022, when Changchun Yatai won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2022, when Changchun Yatai 4-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Changchun Yatai 20% BTTS, Hebei Zhongji 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Changchun Yatai and 20% for Hebei Zhongji.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 60%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 40% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 20% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 20% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Hebei Zhongji 3-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.03 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.63 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.59 / defence 0.99, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 39% | Hebei Zhongji 19%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 54%, Hebei Zhongji 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 2.00 PPG, Hebei Zhongji 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.