SHANGHAI SIPG 3-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to SHANGHAI SIPG versus Wuhan Zall in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 9 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium: 4W 1D 0L from 5 Super League appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Zall's overall Super League record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 4D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in SHANGHAI SIPG's favour (1.90 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SHANGHAI SIPG 0W, Wuhan Zall 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Wuhan Zall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 46% versus Wuhan Zall 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 46% | Wuhan Zall 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.16 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.012 / defence 0.734 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.612 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.337. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 11 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 37% | Wuhan Zall 17%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 | Draw 2.70 | Wuhan Zall 5.88. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Wuhan Zall's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 20% | Wuhan Zall 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 37% | Wuhan Zall 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.16 / Wuhan Zall 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.012 / def 0.734 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.612 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Wuhan Zall xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 47% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 17% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 0W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Zall 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.01x the league average against Wuhan Zall's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.61x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
47%
2.13
37%
2.74
17%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
1.76
0.60
Wuhan Zall xG
2.13
47%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
6.06
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
5%
19.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.60 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 6W 4D 1L from 11 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 0W 7D 4L across 11 games — 0.64 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Zall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 0.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 64%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 7D 4L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Wuhan Zall away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.60 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.60 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 25 June 2022, when Wuhan Zall 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 20%, Wuhan Zall 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 40% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 40%; Wuhan Zall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 60% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 40% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Zall 3-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.16 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.60 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.01 / defence 0.73 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.61 / defence 1.12, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 37% | Wuhan Zall 17%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, Wuhan Zall 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.