Vancouver FC 0-2 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours HFX Wanderers FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vancouver FC face HFX Wanderers FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park Stadium plays host to Vancouver FC versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vancouver FC's home record at Willoughby Community Park Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
HFX Wanderers FC arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Vancouver FC 0W, HFX Wanderers FC 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 55% versus HFX Wanderers FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 57% | HFX Wanderers FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 0.93 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.726 / defence 1.189 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.973 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.519. Vancouver FC's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Vancouver FC games / 34 HFX Wanderers FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | HFX Wanderers FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to HFX Wanderers FC (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, HFX Wanderers FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vancouver FC 40% | HFX Wanderers FC 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Vancouver FC 0.93 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.726 / def 1.189 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.973 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
HFX Wanderers FC xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Vancouver FC 0 - 2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 17% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Record (3 meetings): Vancouver FC 0W | Draws 1 | HFX Wanderers FC 2W.
What form are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.73) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.97x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
The sample (33/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
17%
5.77
28%
3.58
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.76
HFX Wanderers FC xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
33.47
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.76 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 15W 14D 27L from 56 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
HFX Wanderers FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 21L across 56 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Vancouver FC against 1.27 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 9W 6D 12L from 27 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HFX Wanderers FC's away record stands at 3W 10D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vancouver FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.22 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
HFX Wanderers FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HFX Wanderers FC won 0-4 on 24 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
1
Draws
7
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 56%, HFX Wanderers FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Vancouver FC) and 48% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 33% of games; HFX Wanderers FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play HFX Wanderers FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vancouver FC's games and 59% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 48% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat Vancouver FC 0-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.93 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.76 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.19 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 33/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 55%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 57%, HFX Wanderers FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.