Valour 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates York United at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valour face York United.

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Full Analysis

Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 02:00 UK time.

Current Form

Valour's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Valour at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

York United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

York United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Valour's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) — Valour have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, York United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, York United edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Valour 1–1 York United — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Valour — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

York United — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 55% versus York United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 43% | York United 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.20 xG and York United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.814 / defence 1.061 | York United attack 0.968 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.585. Data: built from Valour's last 33 games and York United's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Valour 26% | Draw 29% | York United 45%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.89 | Draw 3.39 | York United 2.23. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Valour's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.1 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valour 60% (last 10 home games) | York United 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Valour 33 games, York United 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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