Valour 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Valour at Princess Auto Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
York United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
York United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Valour have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, York United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Valour 2W, York United 3W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
York United — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 55% versus York United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 43% | York United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.20 xG and York United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.814 / defence 1.061 | York United attack 0.968 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.585. Data: 33 Valour games / 34 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valour 26% | Draw 29% | York United 45%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | York United 2.22. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valour 60% | York United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 26% | Draw 29% | York United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Valour 1.20 / York United 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.814 / def 1.061 | York United attack 0.968 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.585 • Poisson stance: York United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.63
York United xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 26% chance of winning, York United a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
Record (6 meetings): Valour 2W | Draws 1 | York United 3W.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. York United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.81x the league average against York United's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.97x) against Valour's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
The sample (33/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
26%
3.89
29%
3.39
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Valour xG
Total xG
2.83
1.63
York United xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
5%
19.78
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Valour and 1.63 for York United, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 56 games, going 13W 15D 28L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (22W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 8W 6D 14L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.29 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while York United have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.07 PPG; York United away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 50%, York United 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Valour) and 64% (York United).
On the defensive side: Valour have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Valour's games and 68% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Valour's recent games and 64% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and York United tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, York United in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat York United 2-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.20 xG and York United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against York United attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valour 26% | Draw 29% | York United 45%, with York United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 43%, York United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.