Beerschot VA 0-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beerschot VA face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Patro Eisden travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beerschot VA have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Beerschot VA have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Patro Eisden — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Patro Eisden away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.60 (Patro Eisden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Beerschot VA have won 1, Patro Eisden 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Beerschot VA 2–0 Patro Eisden — a Beerschot VA win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 55% versus Patro Eisden 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 55% | Patro Eisden 55%). Note also that Patro Eisden surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Beerschot VA recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.99 xG and Patro Eisden 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.965 / defence 0.677 | Patro Eisden attack 0.532 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.370. Patro Eisden bring a tight defence (rating 0.775, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Beerschot VA's projected output down. Patro Eisden's attack rating of 0.532 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.49. Beerschot VA have a tight defence (rating 0.677), which is pulling Patro Eisden's projected output down. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 51 games and Patro Eisden's last 29.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 35% | Patro Eisden 18%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.13 | Draw 2.85 | Patro Eisden 5.57. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS Yes probability 25% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Patro Eisden's lower xG of 0.49 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beerschot VA's last 10 home games and Patro Eisden's last 10 away games) averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 75%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 40% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 35% | Patro Eisden 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% (Under 81%) | BTTS Yes 25% (No 75%) | xG Beerschot VA 0.99 / Patro Eisden 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.965 / def 0.677 | Patro Eisden attack 0.532 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Patro Eisden xG
25%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Beerschot VA 0 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden part of?
Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 47% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (75%).
Will Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (81%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 51 games and Patro Eisden's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (21.0%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
47%
2.13
35%
2.85
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
22.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
1.49
0.49
Patro Eisden xG
2.13
47%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.08
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.4 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.0%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 0.49 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beerschot VA come into this having played 29 games, going 17W 5D 7L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (13W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.93 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Beerschot VA's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across their last 14 home games, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 14 away games (5W 6D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.34 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Current Season
Patro Eisden
Current Season
Beerschot VA (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Current Season
Patro Eisden
Current Season
❓ Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 17W 5D 7L in their last 29 games (1.93 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Patro Eisden away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.79 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Beerschot VA have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Mar 2026, when Beerschot VA won Patro Eisden 0-4 Beerschot VA.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
2
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 4, Patro Eisden have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Beerschot VA 4-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 50%, Patro Eisden 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beerschot VA) and 36% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 57%; Patro Eisden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 29% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 36% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat Beerschot VA 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Beerschot VA 0-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.99 xG and Patro Eisden 0.49 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Beerschot VA fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.96 / defence 0.68 against Patro Eisden attack 0.53 / defence 0.78, drawn from 51/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 35% | Patro Eisden 18%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Patro Eisden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 55%, Patro Eisden 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.93 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.