Francs Borains 0-3 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Stade Robert Urbain to face Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Francs Borains have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Francs Borains at Stade Robert Urbain this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dender (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dender away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Dender are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Francs Borains have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dender in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Francs Borains 0W, Dender 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Dender winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dender — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 55% versus Dender 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 62% | Dender 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.16 xG and Dender 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.944 / defence 1.141 | Dender attack 1.065 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.370. Data: 29 Francs Borains games / 51 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 27% | Draw 24% | Dender 49%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Dender 2.04. Dender hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dender as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dender if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 60% | Dender 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 27% | Draw 24% | Dender 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Francs Borains 1.16 / Dender 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.944 / def 1.141 | Dender attack 1.065 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Dender (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Dender xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Dender kick off?
Francs Borains vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Dender?
Francs Borains 0 - 3 Dender.
Where is Francs Borains vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Dender part of?
Francs Borains vs Dender is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 27% chance of winning, Dender a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Francs Borains and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Dender?
Record (1 meetings): Francs Borains 0W | Draws 0 | Dender 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and Dender in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Dender (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Francs Borains's attack at 0.94x the league average against Dender's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dender's attack (1.06x) against Francs Borains's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 29/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
27%
3.76
24%
4.12
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.83
1.67
Dender xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
5%
19.88
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.67 for Dender, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Francs Borains come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 5D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Dender sit at 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Dender carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Francs Borains's home form reads 5W 3D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 1.79 points per game from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.79 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender in 62%.
Defensively: Dender in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Dender in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 9W 5D 15L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Dender have gone 14W 9D 6L in their last 29 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.29 PPG; Dender away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Dender in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Francs Borains
0
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Dender?
From 2 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 0, Dender have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Francs Borains 0-3 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 50%, Dender 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Francs Borains) and 50% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Dender in 36%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Francs Borains's games and 64% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Francs Borains's recent games and 50% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Dender tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dender in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dender run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Francs Borains 0-3 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.16 xG and Dender 1.67 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dender outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Dender attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 29/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 27% | Draw 24% | Dender 49%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 62%, Dender 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dender's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.