Patro Eisden 0-4 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and Deinze meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Patro Eisden (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Patrostadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Deinze's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deinze's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Patro Eisden against 1.50 for Deinze. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Patro Eisden lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Patro Eisden half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Deinze half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 40% versus Deinze 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 53% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.61 xG and Deinze 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.153 / defence 1.002 | Deinze attack 0.865 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.377. Data: 30 Patro Eisden games / 52 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 47% | Draw 25% | Deinze 28%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Deinze 3.57. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Patro Eisden 40% | Deinze 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 47% | Draw 25% | Deinze 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Patro Eisden 1.61 / Deinze 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.153 / def 1.002 | Deinze attack 0.865 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Deinze xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Deinze kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Patro Eisden 0 - 4 Deinze.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Deinze part of?
Patro Eisden vs Deinze is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 47% chance of winning, Deinze a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Patro Eisden and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Deinze?
Record (2 meetings): Patro Eisden 1W | Draws 1 | Deinze 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Deinze in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Deinze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Deinze's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.86x) against Patro Eisden's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 30/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.06
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.80
1.19
Deinze xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.19 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 14W 9D 7L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Deinze's form line: 16W 5D 9L from 30 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Patro Eisden against 1.77 for Deinze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Deinze have gone 7W 1D 7L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.60 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 60%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Current Season
Deinze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Deinze in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Deinze have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Deinze away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.80 PPG; Deinze away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Deinze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Deinze?
From 5 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 2, Deinze have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Patro Eisden 3-1 Deinze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 53%, Deinze 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Patro Eisden and 60% for Deinze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 53% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Patro Eisden vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Patro Eisden's matches and 60% of Deinze's.
Do Patro Eisden and Deinze tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Deinze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Deinze run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Patro Eisden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Patro Eisden 0-4 at Patrostadion, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.61 xG and Deinze 1.19 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Deinze outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against Deinze attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 47% | Draw 25% | Deinze 28%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Deinze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 53%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.70 PPG, Deinze 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.