Zulte Waregem 4-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host K. Lierse S.K. at Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Zulte Waregem at Elindus Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 1.20 PPG versus K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 1, K. Lierse S.K. 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 64% and K. Lierse S.K. 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zulte Waregem 59% | K. Lierse S.K. 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.98 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.587 / defence 1.081 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.825 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.370. Zulte Waregem's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Zulte Waregem games / 51 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 29% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 42%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is K. Lierse S.K. at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 40% | K. Lierse S.K. 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 29% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Zulte Waregem 0.98 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.587 / def 1.081 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.825 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.22
K. Lierse S.K. xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Zulte Waregem 4 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 29% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.59) and K. Lierse S.K.'s defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
29%
3.40
29%
3.47
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.20
1.22
K. Lierse S.K. xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.22 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 15D 27L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 24W 9D 28L from 61 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.18 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 0.77 PPG from 30 outings (5W 8D 17L). That actually lags their 1.18 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 10W 6D 14L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.57 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; K. Lierse S.K. in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 19W 15D 27L in their last 61 games (1.18 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 24W 9D 28L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.77 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Zulte Waregem won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K.?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 63%, K. Lierse S.K. 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Zulte Waregem and 70% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 30% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Zulte Waregem's games and 57% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 70% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 4-1 hammering of K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat K. Lierse S.K. 4-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.98 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.22 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.59 / defence 1.08 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.82 / defence 1.25, drawn from 29/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 29% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 42%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, K. Lierse S.K. 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.18 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.