Sharjah FC 1-2 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Sharjah FC welcome Baniyas SC to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 8W 1D 1L at Sharjah Stadium — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sharjah FC are significantly better at Sharjah Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Baniyas SC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.40 (Baniyas SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sharjah FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 7 past contests while Baniyas SC have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2024, ended 4–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 60% versus Baniyas SC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 53% | Baniyas SC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.76 xG and Baniyas SC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.060 / defence 0.588 | Baniyas SC attack 0.922 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.334. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.588 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Sharjah FC games / 47 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 62% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 15%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Baniyas SC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 10% | Baniyas SC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 62% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Sharjah FC 1.76 / Baniyas SC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.060 / def 0.588 | Baniyas SC attack 0.922 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Baniyas SC xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC 1 - 2 Baniyas SC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 62% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
Record (7 meetings): Sharjah FC 7W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.06) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.36
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.48
0.72
Baniyas SC xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
3%
38.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.72 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 24W 15D 8L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 13W 9D 25L from 47 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (12W 8D 3L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 5W 3D 15L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.17 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 24W 15D 8L in their last 47 games (1.85 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 13W 9D 25L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.91 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 48%, Baniyas SC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sharjah FC) and 56% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Baniyas SC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 52% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 56% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Sharjah FC 1-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.76 xG and Baniyas SC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Baniyas SC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.59 against Baniyas SC attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 62% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 15%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 53%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.