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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Sharjah FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Sharjah FC 1-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.46 xG and Al Nasr 1.60 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.22 against Al Nasr attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 35% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 41%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Al Nasr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Nasr's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.61 PPG, Al Nasr 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights