Sharjah FC 0-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Jazira travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sharjah FC are significantly better at Sharjah Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 2 for Al-Jazira and 4 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 41% versus Al-Jazira 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Al-Jazira 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.76 xG and Al-Jazira 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.925 | Al-Jazira attack 1.092 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.433. Data: 27 Sharjah FC games / 27 Al-Jazira games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 32%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Jazira 3.12. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 20% | Al-Jazira 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Sharjah FC 1.76 / Al-Jazira 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.066 / def 0.925 | Al-Jazira attack 1.092 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Jazira xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Sharjah FC 0 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (7 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 4 | Al-Jazira 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Al-Jazira (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
45%
2.21
23%
4.33
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.45
Al-Jazira xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.45 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 17W 3D 7L from 27 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 10L across 27 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Jazira heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 9W 1D 3L from 13 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Jazira's away record stands at 4W 5D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.74 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 17W 3D 7L in their last 27 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
5
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 1, Al-Jazira have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 23%, Al-Jazira 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sharjah FC and 69% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 77% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sharjah FC's matches and 69% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Jazira defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.76 xG and Al-Jazira 1.45 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Al-Jazira attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 45% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 32%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al-Jazira 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Al-Jazira winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.