Sharjah FC 1-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Al-Dhafra at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 2L across 7 games at Sharjah Stadium this term (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
On current form, Sharjah FC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 0 for Al-Dhafra and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 46% versus Al-Dhafra 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 69% | Al-Dhafra 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.42 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.082 / defence 1.054 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.689 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.232. Data: 14 Sharjah FC games / 13 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Dhafra 23%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Dhafra 4.35. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 29% | Al-Dhafra 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Dhafra 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Sharjah FC 1.42 / Al-Dhafra 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.082 / def 1.054 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.689 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Dhafra xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 10 February 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 48% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra?
Record (1 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.42
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.32
0.90
Al-Dhafra xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
18.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.90 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 7W 2D 4L from 13 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 7L across 13 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.85 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sharjah FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Sharjah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 6, Al-Dhafra have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Dhafra see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 33%, Al-Dhafra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Sharjah FC) and 33% (Al-Dhafra). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Dhafra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sharjah FC's matches and 33% of Al-Dhafra's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Dhafra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.42 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.90 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Dhafra 23%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 69%, Al-Dhafra 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.