Baniyas SC 0-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC meet at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 10 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 1D 3L this season (7 games, 1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
Al Wahda FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 4W 3D 1L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.88 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Wahda FC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Baniyas SC, 0 for Al Wahda FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Baniyas SC — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 50% versus Al Wahda FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 50% | Al Wahda FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.37 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.105 / defence 1.135 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.062 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.209. Data: 14 Baniyas SC games / 14 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 35% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wahda FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 43% | Al Wahda FC 62%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 35% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Baniyas SC 1.37 / Al Wahda FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.105 / def 1.135 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.062 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al Wahda FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 10 February 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Baniyas SC 0 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 35% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (1 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 0W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.06x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
35%
2.83
25%
3.98
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.46
Al Wahda FC xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.46 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 5W 4D 5L from 14 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 1L across 14 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baniyas SC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 7W 6D 1L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 43%, Al Wahda FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Baniyas SC) and 57% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Baniyas SC's games and 71% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 57% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Baniyas SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Baniyas SC 0-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.37 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.10 / defence 1.14 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 35% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 40%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 50%, Al Wahda FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.