Sharjah FC 0-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Ain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Ain travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sharjah FC are significantly better at Sharjah Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Ain — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.50 (Al Ain). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sharjah FC, 2 for Al Ain and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Ain in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 59% and Al Ain 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 55% | Al Ain 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.51 xG and Al Ain 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.997 / defence 0.708 | Al Ain attack 1.116 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.385. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Sharjah FC games / 49 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 47% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 27%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Al Ain 3.70. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 20% | Al Ain 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 47% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Sharjah FC 1.51 / Al Ain 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.997 / def 0.708 | Al Ain attack 1.116 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Ain xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Ain kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Ain kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 May 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Sharjah FC 0 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 47% chance of winning, Al Ain a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
Record (7 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 4 | Al Ain 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Ain in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Al Ain (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al Ain's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.90
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.09
Al Ain xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.09 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 24W 15D 10L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain's form line: 24W 10D 15L from 49 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.78 PPG, Al Ain on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (12W 8D 4L).
On the road, Al Ain have gone 12W 5D 7L from 24 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.14 scored and 1.41 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Ain in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 24W 15D 10L in their last 49 games (1.78 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 24W 10D 15L in their last 49 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Ain away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Al Ain away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al Ain in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Ain have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Al Ain won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
5
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 1, Al Ain have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-5 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Al Ain 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sharjah FC and 71% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al Ain in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 58% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sharjah FC's matches and 71% of Al Ain's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Ain tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Sharjah FC 0-3 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.51 xG and Al Ain 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al Ain outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.71 against Al Ain attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 47% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 27%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al Ain win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 55%, Al Ain 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Ain's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.78 PPG, Al Ain 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.