Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC meet at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.70 PPG for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 2.60 for Sharjah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sharjah FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 74% and Sharjah FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 90% | Sharjah FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.20 xG and Sharjah FC 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.459 / defence 1.088 | Sharjah FC attack 1.061 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.754. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.459 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 31 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 20% | Sharjah FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.33 | Draw 5.00 | Sharjah FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.22 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% | Sharjah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 20% | Sharjah FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.20 / Sharjah FC 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.459 / def 1.088 | Sharjah FC attack 1.061 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.754 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Sharjah FC xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 43% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 37% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
Record (6 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W | Draws 2 | Sharjah FC 2W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 1.46x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.06x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
43%
2.32
20%
4.94
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
4.22
2.02
Sharjah FC xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.40
Clean Sheet
13%
7.57
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
4%
24.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 2.02 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 23W 4D 4L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC's form line: 15W 12D 4L from 31 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sharjah FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.47 PPG from 15 outings (12W 1D 2L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 8W 5D 2L from 15 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.94 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.13 scored and 1.35 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 74%.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 23W 4D 4L in their last 31 games (2.35 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 15W 12D 4L in their last 31 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Sharjah FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.47 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-4 on 5 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
3
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 80% for Sharjah FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 60% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 80% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 60% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Sharjah FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Sharjah FC 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.20 xG and Sharjah FC 2.02 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.46 / defence 1.09 against Sharjah FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 20% | Sharjah FC 37%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 90%, Sharjah FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.84. Form held, and they took the win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.