Al Bataeh 3-4 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al Bataeh welcome Al Nasr to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Bataeh have posted 3W 2D 5L at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Bataeh) versus 1.30 (Al Nasr). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Bataeh, 1 for Al Nasr and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Bataeh trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Nasr trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 71% and Al Nasr 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 71% | Al Nasr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.89 xG and Al Nasr 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.928 / defence 1.119 | Al Nasr attack 1.077 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.878 / away 1.717. Data: 31 Al Bataeh games / 31 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 21% | Al Nasr 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.78 | Draw 4.76 | Al Nasr 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 90% | Al Nasr 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 12:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 21% | Al Nasr 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Al Bataeh 1.89 / Al Nasr 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.928 / def 1.119 | Al Nasr attack 1.077 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.878 / away 1.717 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Al Nasr xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr kicked off at 12:55 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Al Bataeh 3 - 4 Al Nasr.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 36% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 43% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Nasr?
Record (4 meetings): Al Bataeh 2W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.93) and Al Nasr's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
36%
2.78
21%
4.77
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.96
2.07
Al Nasr xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
13%
7.92
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
5%
21.99
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.07 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 31 games, going 11W 8D 12L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.55 PPG from 31 outings (14W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 1.32 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.71 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Al Nasr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 14W 6D 11L in their last 31 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
2
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Nasr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Al Nasr have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Al Nasr 1-1 Al Bataeh.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Bataeh at 80%, Al Nasr at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Bataeh and 80% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al Bataeh's games and 67% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Bataeh's matches and 80% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al Bataeh 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al Bataeh 3-4 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.89 xG and Al Nasr 2.07 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al Bataeh beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Nasr outscored their 2.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Al Nasr attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 21% | Al Nasr 43%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 71%, Al Nasr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.32 PPG, Al Nasr 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.