Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Rashid Stadium this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 1.40 for Khorfakkan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Khorfakkan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% versus Khorfakkan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25% | Khorfakkan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 xG and Khorfakkan 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.012 / defence 1.030 | Khorfakkan attack 0.862 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.229. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 12 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 22%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Khorfakkan 4.55. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Khorfakkan 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 / Khorfakkan 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.012 / def 1.030 | Khorfakkan attack 0.862 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Khorfakkan xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 11 January 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 51% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.86x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.63
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.84
1.09
Khorfakkan xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
26.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.09 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 5W 5D 2L from 12 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 5L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.33 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Khorfakkan away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.60 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
0
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-3 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%, Khorfakkan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 80% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 60% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 80% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 xG and Khorfakkan 1.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Khorfakkan attack 0.86 / defence 1.42, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 22%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%, Khorfakkan 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.