Khorfakkan 0-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 31 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 54% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 73% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.37 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.950 / defence 1.136 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.878 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.212. Data: 11 Khorfakkan games / 11 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 30%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 50% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Khorfakkan 1.37 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.950 / def 1.136 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.878 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Khorfakkan 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 37% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.95) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.88x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
37%
2.70
33%
2.99
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.21 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 2L across 11 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.36 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Khorfakkan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 40%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Khorfakkan) and 40% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 40% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Khorfakkan 0-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.37 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 30%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ittihad Kalba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 73%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.36 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.