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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan finished level at 3-3 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.11 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.48 / defence 0.79 against Khorfakkan attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights