Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Khorfakkan in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 17:20 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Khorfakkan's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Khorfakkan away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who have won 7 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Khorfakkan — Khorfakkan have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Nov 2025, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–0 Khorfakkan — a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win.
The head-to-head data gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai an edge — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% versus Khorfakkan 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Khorfakkan 62%). Note also that Khorfakkan surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.476 / defence 0.793 | Khorfakkan attack 0.992 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.416. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack rating of 1.476 — their 2.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Khorfakkan's projected output down. Data: built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 48 games and Khorfakkan's last 48.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.60 | Draw 5.13 | Khorfakkan 5.59. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 17:20 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.23 / Khorfakkan 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.476 / def 0.793 | Khorfakkan attack 0.992 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Khorfakkan xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:20 UK time on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 63% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.99x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 48 games and Khorfakkan's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
63%
1.60
20%
5.13
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.34
1.11
Khorfakkan xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
2%
52.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.11 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 35W 10D 3L from 48 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 21L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 19W 3D 1L from their last 23 home games — 2.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 9W 2D 12L across their last 23 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.48 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 65%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 35W 10D 3L in their last 48 games (2.40 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Khorfakkan away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.61 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4-0 Khorfakkan on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
0
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48%, Khorfakkan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 74% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 61% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 74% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 78% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan finished level at 3-3 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.11 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.48 / defence 0.79 against Khorfakkan attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.