Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 10-0 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Hatta SC travel to Rashid Stadium to take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024, 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Rashid Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hatta SC — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Hatta SC have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 1, Hatta SC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2024, ended 5–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Hatta SC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 72% and Hatta SC 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88% | Hatta SC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.73 xG and Hatta SC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.461 / defence 0.837 | Hatta SC attack 0.667 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.714. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hatta SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 25 Hatta SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73% | Draw 18% | Hatta SC 9%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Hatta SC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Hatta SC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73% | Draw 18% | Hatta SC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 59% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.73 / Hatta SC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.461 / def 0.837 | Hatta SC attack 0.667 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.714 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hatta SC xG
59%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC kicked off at 16:45 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 10 - 0 Hatta SC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 73% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC?
Record (1 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W | Draws 0 | Hatta SC 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Hatta SC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.73. The same calculation in reverse, Hatta SC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 3-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.71
9%
10.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.69
0.96
Hatta SC xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.71
18%
Draw
10.83
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
7%
15.35
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
1%
166.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.96 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 17W 4D 4L from 25 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatta SC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 17L across 25 games — 0.40 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatta SC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 9W 1D 2L from 12 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatta SC's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.80 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Hatta SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 17W 4D 4L in their last 25 games (2.20 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 1W 7D 17L in their last 25 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Hatta SC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.33 PPG; Hatta SC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
0
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC?
From 2 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 2, Hatta SC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 10-0 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 75%, Hatta SC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 58% for Hatta SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Hatta SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 67% of Hatta SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Hatta SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 58% of Hatta SC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Hatta SC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hatta SC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 10-0 hammering of Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Hatta SC 10-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.73 xG and Hatta SC 0.96 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 10-0 for 10 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 7.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatta SC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.46 / defence 0.84 against Hatta SC attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73% | Draw 18% | Hatta SC 9%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%, Hatta SC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatta SC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 10 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hatta SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 10 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.