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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh finished level at 1-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 xG and Al Bataeh 1.14 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.50 / defence 0.94 against Al Bataeh attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 19%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61%, Al Bataeh 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights