Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.22 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.39 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 18% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 73%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights