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Stalemate at Khorfakkan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah finished level at 0-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.26 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.25 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Dibba Al-Fujairah landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.04 / defence 1.41 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.63 / defence 1.56, drawn from 44/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 60% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 20%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.06 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights