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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.21 xG and Al Bataeh 1.55 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Al Bataeh attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 25% | Al Bataeh 45%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 64%, Al Bataeh 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khorfakkan's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.19 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights