🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Dibba Al Hisn host Al Wahda FC at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025 at 15:10 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al Hisn stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Dibba Al Hisn have posted 2W 1D 7L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wahda FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wahda FC are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Al Wahda FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2025, ended 1–4 with Al Wahda FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Dibba Al Hisn in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al Hisn 65% and Al Wahda FC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al Hisn 61% | Al Wahda FC 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 0.94 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.692 / defence 1.215 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.033 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.361. Dibba Al Hisn's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Dibba Al Hisn games / 49 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 21% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wahda FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al Hisn 50% | Al Wahda FC 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights