Dibba Al Hisn 0-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dibba Al Hisn host Al Wahda FC at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025 at 15:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al Hisn stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dibba Al Hisn have posted 2W 1D 7L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wahda FC are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Al Wahda FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2025, ended 1–4 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dibba Al Hisn in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al Hisn 65% and Al Wahda FC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al Hisn 61% | Al Wahda FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 0.94 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.692 / defence 1.215 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.033 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.361. Dibba Al Hisn's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Dibba Al Hisn games / 49 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 21% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wahda FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al Hisn 50% | Al Wahda FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 21% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 0.94 / Al Wahda FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.692 / def 1.215 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.033 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Al Wahda FC xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 12 May 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC?
Dibba Al Hisn 0 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 21% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al Hisn 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC in?
Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dibba Al Hisn's attack rating (0.69) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Dibba Al Hisn's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
21%
4.82
24%
4.18
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
2.65
1.71
Al Wahda FC xG
4.82
21%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
4%
26.57
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 1.71 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Dibba Al Hisn have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 4W 4D 15L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dibba Al Hisn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 11W 8D 4L from 23 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al Hisn.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dibba Al Hisn have posted 0.64 PPG from 11 outings (2W 1D 8L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 4D 3L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dibba Al Hisn are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.91 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Dibba Al Hisn have gone 4W 4D 15L in their last 23 games (0.70 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 11W 8D 4L in their last 23 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al Hisn at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al Hisn at home: 0.64 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Dibba Al Hisn or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al Hisn have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dibba Al Hisn
0
Draws
2
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Al Wahda FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Dibba Al Hisn 0-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al Hisn 54%, Al Wahda FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dibba Al Hisn) and 46% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 46%; Dibba Al Hisn have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Wahda FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al Hisn play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dibba Al Hisn's recent matches and 46% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dibba Al Hisn's recent games and 46% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al Hisn and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Dibba Al Hisn have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dibba Al Hisn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Dibba Al Hisn 0-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 0.94 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.71 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dibba Al Hisn fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.69 / defence 1.22 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.89, drawn from 23/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 21% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 55%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 61%, Al Wahda FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.