Dibba Al Hisn 1-2 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dibba Al Hisn at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dibba Al Hisn host Al Urooba at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al Hisn stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al Hisn's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Urooba have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Urooba away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dibba Al Hisn at 0.70 PPG versus Al Urooba's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dibba Al Hisn, 0 for Al Urooba and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Dibba Al Hisn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dibba Al Hisn in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Urooba in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al Hisn 64% and Al Urooba 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dibba Al Hisn 60% | Al Urooba 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.34 xG and Al Urooba 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.642 / defence 1.174 | Al Urooba attack 0.681 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.491. Dibba Al Hisn's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Dibba Al Hisn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Dibba Al Hisn games / 25 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 40% | Draw 27% | Al Urooba 33%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Al Urooba 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dibba Al Hisn are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dibba Al Hisn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dibba Al Hisn 40% | Al Urooba 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 40% | Draw 27% | Al Urooba 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 1.34 / Al Urooba 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.642 / def 1.174 | Al Urooba attack 0.681 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: Dibba Al Hisn (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al Urooba xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba kicked off at 15:10 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba?
Dibba Al Hisn 1 - 2 Al Urooba.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 40% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dibba Al Hisn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al Hisn 1W | Draws 0 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba in?
Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al Urooba (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dibba Al Hisn's attack rating (0.64) and Al Urooba's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Dibba Al Hisn's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dibba Al Hisn Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.64
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
2.54
1.19
Al Urooba xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 1.19 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dibba Al Hisn come into this having played 25 games, going 4W 4D 17L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Dibba Al Hisn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.40 PPG from 25 outings (3W 1D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dibba Al Hisn on 0.64 PPG, Al Urooba on 0.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dibba Al Hisn's home form reads 2W 1D 9L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Urooba have taken 0.25 points per game from 12 outings (1W 0D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dibba Al Hisn are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.88 scored and 2.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Dibba Al Hisn have gone 4W 4D 17L in their last 25 games (0.64 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 3W 1D 21L in their last 25 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al Hisn at home or Al Urooba away?
Dibba Al Hisn's home record (0.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al Hisn at home: 0.58 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dibba Al Hisn
0
Draws
1
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 1, Al Urooba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Dibba Al Hisn 1-2 Al Urooba.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al Hisn 50%, Al Urooba 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Dibba Al Hisn and 75% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dibba Al Hisn have failed to score in 42% of games; Al Urooba in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al Hisn play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dibba Al Hisn's recent matches and 33% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Dibba Al Hisn's matches and 75% of Al Urooba's.
Do Dibba Al Hisn and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Dibba Al Hisn have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Urooba defy the odds to beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Urooba beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.34 xG and Al Urooba 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Urooba outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.64 / defence 1.17 against Al Urooba attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 40% | Draw 27% | Al Urooba 33%, with Dibba Al Hisn to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al Urooba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 60%, Al Urooba 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al Urooba's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al Hisn 0.64 PPG, Al Urooba 0.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Urooba win broke the near-deadlock. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.