🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.98 xG and Khorfakkan 1.78 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Khorfakkan attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 21% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 56%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dibba Al-Fujairah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 54%, Khorfakkan 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights