Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium to take on Dibba Al-Fujairah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 100% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 0%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 100% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.22 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.931 / defence 1.410 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.968 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.263. Data: 3 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 29 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 27% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 49%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.04. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 100% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 27% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.22 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.931 / def 1.410 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.968 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 27% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (2 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
27%
3.70
24%
4.21
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.94
1.72
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
5%
20.71
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.72 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad Kalba by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 0.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad Kalba have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 0% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.22 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.93 / defence 1.41 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 3/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 27% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 49%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad Kalba scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.