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Prediction vindicated as Dibba Al-Fujairah edge out Al-Dhafra 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.49 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.32 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.79 / defence 1.33, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 33%, with Dibba Al-Fujairah to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 55%, Al-Dhafra 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.70 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights