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Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Al Bataeh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Bataeh 2-1 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.95 xG and Al Bataeh 1.38 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Al Bataeh attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 26% | Draw 28% | Al Bataeh 46%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dibba Al-Fujairah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%, Al Bataeh 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights