Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dibba Stadium plays host to Dibba Al-Fujairah versus Al Ain in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 7 October 2022 at 14:15 UTC.
Current Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games (0.25 PPG). Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Ain have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Ain have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Ain away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Al Ain are the stronger side — 2.05 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.25). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Dibba Al-Fujairah half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al Ain half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 75% and Al Ain 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% | Al Ain 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.02 xG and Al Ain 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.776 / defence 1.370 | Al Ain attack 0.998 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.310. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 30 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 20% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 54%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Al Ain 1.85. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Ain at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 75% | Al Ain 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 20% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.02 / Al Ain 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.776 / def 1.370 | Al Ain attack 0.998 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Al Ain xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain kicked off at 14:15 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 0 - 2 Al Ain.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 20% chance of winning, Al Ain a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L. Al Ain (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.78) and Al Ain's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.00x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 4/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
20%
4.98
26%
3.88
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.81
1.79
Al Ain xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
3%
29.87
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.79 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dibba Al-Fujairah come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Ain sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Ain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 3.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Ain in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
Al Ain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Ain in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
4
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al Ain have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Ain 4-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 75%, Al Ain 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 75% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al Ain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 50% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's matches and 75% of Al Ain's.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.02 xG and Al Ain 1.79 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against Al Ain attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 4/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 20% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 54%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%, Al Ain 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Ain's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Al Ain managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.