Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah stand at 0W 1D 4L from 5 Pro League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Al-Ittihad Kalba have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Ittihad Kalba 0% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad Kalba 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.39 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.837 / defence 1.069 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.750 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.211. Data: 31 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 5 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 45% | Draw 31% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.17. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 45% | Draw 31% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.39 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.837 / def 1.069 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.750 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 45% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.84) and Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.24
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.36
0.97
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0.97 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad Kalba by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ittihad Kalba 0% BTTS, Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 40% for Dibba Al-Fujairah.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 60% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 60% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 40% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-0 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.39 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.97 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 45% | Draw 31% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 24%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 20%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad Kalba scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.