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Ajman cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.18 xG and Ajman 1.29 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Ajman attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 29% | Ajman 38%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 58%, Ajman 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ajman's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 PPG, Ajman 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights