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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 2-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.02 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.43 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 16% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights