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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC beat Al Wahda FC 1-0 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.08 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 25% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 49%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 57%, Al Wahda FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights