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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Baniyas SC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Baniyas SC 1-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.12 xG and Al Nasr 2.13 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.77 / defence 1.39 against Al Nasr attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 19% | Draw 20% | Al Nasr 60%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 58%, Al Nasr 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights