🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 2.02 xG and Al Bataeh 1.73 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.99 / defence 1.28 against Al Bataeh attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 32%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 63%, Al Bataeh 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.94 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights