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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 0.62 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.22 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.57 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.41 / defence 0.54, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 19% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 57%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights